The 360 is Following a Strong Roadmap
Posted 04/25/2007 @ 06:30:34 AM by Joseph Molnar
Filed under: Xbox 360

Last month I started a four part series of posts evaluating the state of the current consoles. The previous article looked at the Nintendo Wii. Today I'm looking at the Microsoft Xbox 360.

Clearly There was a Plan

It is extremely clear that when Microsoft was planning the life of the 360 they thought long and hard about the ways to provide a complete package to the consumer and how to deliver that package over the lifetime of the console; Microsoft designed a roadmap to secure a solid footing in the consumers' living room.

To illustrate this, the following series of non-game timelines should give you a concise but thorough look at what Microsoft managed to deliver and what is known up through Holiday 2007. The timelines outline the variety and consistent release of accessories, the importance and strength of media, and the desire to open the platform up through instant messaging, homebrew development and cross-platform game play.

(Note: These mostly reflect North American dates.)

The Media Timeline
The Accessory Timeline
  • Nov. 2005 (launch): Wired/Wireless Controllers, Battery Packs, Wireless Networking Adapter, Play & Charge Kit
  • May 2006: Quick Charge Kit
  • Sep. 2006: Live Vision Camera
  • Nov. 2006: Wireless Racing Wheel, Wireless Headset, HD DVD Player (in media timeline)
  • Feb. 2007: Xbox 360 Wireless Receiver for Windows
  • Apr. 2007: Black Accessories, 120 GB hard drive
  • Summer 2007: Controller Keyboard (clearly planned for)
Other Timeline Notes
  • May 2006 - Live Anywhere announced
  • Dec. 2006 - XNA Game Studio Express Release (make games for 360 and Windows)
  • Apr. 2007 - XNA Game Studio Express Update
  • May 2007 - Dashboard update brings Windows Live Messenger Integration, Shadowrun is first 360/Windows LIVE Anywhere title

What about Games?

There are two stats that impress me. First stat, while the 360 had a year head start it is still very impressive to see that at the time of this writing Metacritic is reporting that the 360 has at least as many games rated above 80 as the PS3 and the Wii has games at any rating (the Wii's numbers don't include Virtual Console titles). The 360 has 49 titles rated 80 or above (with 176 titles total), PS3 has 40 total, and Wii has 49 total. Bottom-line: The 360 has a strong selection of games.

Second stat, with the latest March numbers for North America Microsoft is reporting that 5.7 games have been sold per console each month for the past 8 months. Even if the Wii manages to grab a larger portion of the market (and if the current trajectory holds, it will), the 360 is the console selling the most games which means publishers will keep putting the 360 on the target list.

In general Microsoft has done a good job managing the games on the platform:

  • Publisher of new IP by external developers such as Gear of War, Crackdown, Blue Dragon, Mass Effect, Lost Odyssey, Too Human
  • Developer of titles such as Kameo, Forza Motorsport 2, Halo 3, Fable 2, Banjo-Kazooie 3
  • Leveled the playing field by having older franchises on the 360 such as Devil May Cry 4, GTA IV, Virtua Fighter 5, Beautiful Katamari.
  • Gotten third party console exclusives such as Call of Duty 2, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Bioshock, Overlord.

Amazingly, this doesn't including Arcade titles. There is no doubt that Live Arcade was growing slowly after the initial 14 launch titles. Now there are over 50 varying titles and Microsoft is periodically delivering multiple titles a week while expanding the range of titles. Live Arcade is proving to be the console download service to beat.

Not According to Plan

There is no doubt that Microsoft has done a great job putting together a strong plan and they are seeing the 360 become a strong contender for this generation's winning console. However, not everything has been going as smoothly as they had hoped.

Pricing

Microsoft would definitely sell more consoles if the 360 was cheaper, but quality issues, push for profitability and Sony's discontinuation of the 20 GB PS3 is keeping Microsoft from taking the plunge. But Microsoft should be cautious in allowing Sony to make the first price cut.

Console prices aside, the general sentiment is that the cost of items like the 120GB HD, Oblivion Horse Armour, Lumines Live and Guitar Hero 2 song packs are prohibitive.

Of course being the console micro-transaction pioneer means Microsoft will take a beating while they learn what does and doesn't work (while competitors get the lesson for free). Even though Microsoft doesn't set the price of downloads a large portion of the gaming population will still blame Microsoft and no explanation will help. While Microsoft knows what is or isn't purchased, what is harder to determine is if potential new customers are being scared away.

If blog and board comments are any measure, pricing has been loosing goodwill for Microsoft. Of course it doesn't help when developers describe their differences in opinion on how to get content to the consumer.

Quality

While manufacturing failures will always happen, it is clear that something was definitely wrong with Xbox 360s manufactured as late as April 2006 (perhaps later). Microsoft knows this and has been attempting to address the situation while changing their warranty to support customers.

Unfortunately the quality issues are broader. Key games required crucial patches right out of the gate. Others had patches for the patches. While developers need to do adequate testing so they don't hinder game sales, their failure impacts the 360's reputation as a whole.

Microsoft does have a certification process that involves some testing. The question is, does it makes sense for Microsoft to do more to ensure a higher minimum level of quality? If so, who eats the cost and will release dates be significantly impacted?

The 360 has unfortunately gained the reputation of being the least reliable console. Coupled with pricing issues and you have the two key forces working against the 360's sales and goodwill.

Japan

Poor reception of the original Xbox, a 360 weak launch catalog, and hardware issues has seriously put the 360 at a disadvantage in Japan. Highly rated titles like Blue Dragon aren't providing prolonged sales and support from firms ranging from Capcom to budget publisher D3 Publisher isn't having much of an impact. Microsoft was hoping for 1 million units sold within 8 months but instead is at less than 400,000 in nearly 18 months.

While Microsoft doesn't need to win Japan, growing Japanese developer support is crucial for both Japan and world-wide sales; it is going to take more than Devil May Cry, Trusty Bell and Lost Odyssey. A price cut, flagship titles like Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid, a Japanese Video Marketplace and better advertising would help Microsoft's Japanese efforts significantly.

Creativity

From a creative standpoint Microsoft is, oddly, the console traditionalist. Nintendo wowed the gaming world with a new controller, and Sony has been investing in more avant-garde titles like LittleBigPlanet and flOw. This isn't entirely surprising. After all, Nintendo and Sony are both entertainment companies first where Microsoft is a software technology company first.

Yes the amount of original IP on the 360 is strong but the number of uniquely creative games is rather small.

But Microsoft studios Rare and Lionhead Studios, as examples, could be strong creative champions. Microsoft needs to let them explore games as a medium for creativity, art and storytelling. Let the studios garner acclaim even if the games aren't mega-hits; it will help Microsoft gain much less fickle supporters.

It is a shame that Microsoft isn't still employing the ex-Lionhead folks behind LittleBigPlanet.

 

Articles in the series:

Comments

I'm not sure how it would fit into your "strong roadmap", but aside from quality issues you left out a pretty big area for discussion - the console itself.

Whether it was intentionally done to rush to market and keep costs down or not, there's little argument that the 360 is the least elegant console in the new generation. The huge external power brick; the strap-on HD-DVD player (with yet another power brick!); the noisy DVD drive and fan; the poor thermal design and subsequent system overheating issues; the scratching of DVDs; the design of an analog signal path and subsequent kludges to attempt to get to 1080p and an HDMI output; the lack of WiFi; the list goes on.

Now maybe this is all part of the grand plan: poor quality will let you point to a certain number of additional units sold, even if the number of functioning units is significantly lower than what is quoted as "installed base". Re-designing the system incrementally (e.g. Elite) will get you a few extra sales among the hardcore. Selling a bunch of HD-DVD drives, then abandoning the format for a Blu-ray peripheral, may also make a few extra bucks.

But one would think at some point consumers would start to see through this, and not want to go anywhere near such a poorly designed and implemented - and constantly changing - system.

... so said 'joemama' on 04/25/2007 @ 03:53:01 PM [Direct Link]

Hey joemama,

While valid points that will impact the purchasing decisions of specific groups of people, things like elegance of analog signal path, 1080p, power brick, etc and even noise aren't going to impact purchasing decisions in the same order of magnitude as the greater issue of publicized cases of build quality (3 rings, scratched disks, software patches).

For example, even with the PS3's more elegant design and features (e.g. HDMI 1.3), the Xbox 360 is still outselling the PS3 (in North America). People are seemingly making their decision based on price and gaming library.

That said, Sony does have more experience with manufacturing and concentrates on consumer A/V electronics, so it isn't surprising to see a more elegant console.

I personally don't believe MS is deliberately attempting to lower the build quality in order to make additional sales down the road; that isn’t a sustainable business. I do believe MS wasn't expecting this level of quality issues.

As for the Elite, I am somewhat mixed on the idea (though am not upset that it exists). But refreshes in hardware have commonly helped consoles (DS and PS2 come to mind). Yes this isn't exactly the same (increase in price and new port), but if compete.com’s data is accurate, the Elite is trending to help MS (http://blog.compete.com/2007/04/19/xbox-36-elite-demand-popularity/) and not have a large impact on premium/core demand (as of yet ... will be more telling in a few months).

Ever feel like the console universe is a soap opera :).

... so said 'Joseph Molnar' on 04/25/2007 @ 11:53:59 PM [Direct Link]

I think Joe hit the main point spot on -- Sony has been a hardware manufacturer for decades now, and Nintendo has been in the console market for a very long time. Microsoft is on its 2nd generation, and most of its past experience has been with peripherals rather than core systems.

Microsoft's focus has always been on software and providing greatest flexibility to users. Albeit, that comes at the cost of quality and compatibility because it often rushes to get to market without fully testing products, and the software paradigm allows vendors to push out a half-baked product and then 'fix' it as they see fit.

I am most interested in seeing if the software problems and glitches are specific to just the 360, or if multi-platform games also exhibit the same issues. If it is a wider spread problem, the honus will fall on the software developers and the platform vendors may need to employ more stringent quality control methods.

... so said 'Ming' on 04/27/2007 @ 09:41:05 AM [Direct Link]

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